How tech policy could dominate the Trump presidency
The Scene
The previous two US administrations played mostly defense when it came to tech policy.
The first Donald Trump term focused on curbing the ability of China to rip off American innovation. Biden officials picked up where Trump left off, with new export restrictions on US technology and the CHIPS Act, aimed at onshoring and diversifying the semiconductor supply chain.
The next four years will likely include a hefty bit of offense. How does the US dominate the artificial intelligence revolution, the space industry, biotech, materials science and other areas key to having an edge against China in the technology cold war?
Deep tech categories are hitting inflection points, and how the US fares relative to China could shape Trump’s long-term legacy.
The View From The next Trump administration
Here are some interesting areas worth watching.
Basic research: Like most Republican administrations, Trump comes to office with the promise of reducing government spending. What we don’t know is whether that policy will apply to federal funding for basic research.
When it comes to AI, the most cutting-edge research requires access to the kind of compute power currently controlled exclusively by corporations — at least in the US.
America could see increased spending in this area. The first Trump White House, in August 2020, worked with the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy to set up 12 AI and quantum computing research institutes, offering $1 billion in funding for work in those areas.
One clue will be how Trump officials weigh in on the National AI Resource, a pilot program that offers compute resources for government and academic researchers and some startups.
Bargaining Chips: The cutting-edge silicon that crunches AI math at blazing speeds makes products like ChatGPT possible, and global businesses can’t get enough of it.
The US has so far been cautious about where it allows companies like Nvidia and Cerebrus to ship their most powerful products, worried that the technology could fall into the hands of China or countries with poor human rights records.
Trump could see these chips as leverage in international negotiations. As one tech policy person said to me this week, “Chips are the new tariffs.” Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been pushing the US to allow more chip imports.
The question is what Trump, author of The Art of the Deal, will ask for in return. It’s not inconceivable that chips could have some role in efforts to end the war in Ukraine or Gaza, for instance, given the Gulf region’s interest in both conflicts.
AI Moonshots: Republicans want smaller government intervention and free markets to solve problems. But national security is often the exception.
There’s an argument that the Department of Defense, National Security Agency and other parts of the government should be building cutting-edge AI data centers. Something similar was suggested in the Biden administration’s recent national security memo on AI.
Musk could be an interesting player here. SpaceX, one of his many companies, is already a crucial government contractor, both for NASA and the Pentagon.
Musk’s empire of companies could play a role similar to Google during the Obama presidency, when the search giant sent 29 staffers and executives to The White House and filled key roles in many federal agencies.
Could his xAI startup get more heavily involved in government work, or even build data centers for US agencies?
Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle and Google are more established and natural choices. But political loyalty could be a more important factor.
Biotech: This field is rapidly changing because of AI and robotics. The Nobel Prize for Chemistry this year was awarded to researchers who used AI to predict protein structures, a key breakthrough on the road to turning medicine into a software problem.
But China, which pumps out PhDs faster than the US, is also a big player in this space. For instance, labs there synthesize molecules and run lab tests for American researchers using AI to search for drug candidates.
Advances in laboratory automation, which has benefited from the concurrent robotics boom, is one promising area that could speed up innovation in the space.
At the same time, China is gaining ground on the US in this key area of innovation. The Biden administration expanded export controls and investment restrictions on the Chinese biotech industry. The Trump administration could add additional limits, but it could also aim to fund and speed up the pace of development in the US.
Antitrust: Trump, in his first term, broke with conservative orthodoxy by bringing antitrust lawsuits against major tech companies, some of which are still wrapping up in the courts today.
The Biden administration, under Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, has continued to pressure the tech industry, blocking deals and bringing lawsuits.
This time around, it seems more likely that Trump will dial down the heat on tech. The main issue that Trump cared about was alleged censorship of conservative voices on social media. Now, Musk owns X, Trump has his own social media platform, and conservative podcasts may have had a meaningful impact on an election that saw Republicans dominate across the board. Silencing those voices seems like a non-issue.
Immigration: We know how Trump wants to deal with undocumented immigrants, but skilled workers are a different issue. In many ways, the US system is fundamentally broken. Too many H-1B visas are used to hire cheaper tech workers. And while the percentage has been dropping, a handful of Indian consulting firms still account for a huge chunk of the available H-1Bs handed out each year.
Meanwhile, talented PhD students sometimes have a difficult time remaining in the US. For Chinese and Indian tech workers, even those who are incredibly talented, it’s especially difficult to get a green card. With control of all three branches of the federal government, it will be interesting to see how Republicans address the problem.
Who gets hurt: Trump’s election is definitely not positive for OpenAI, which is under antitrust scrutiny in Washington. Not only has Musk essentially declared war on the company, CEO Sam Altman is also a Democratic donor and Chris Lehane, the head of policy whom I interviewed last week, worked in the Bill Clinton White House.
But this is where OpenAI’s partnership with Microsoft could be crucial. The company’s technology is deeply embedded in government and its president, Brad Smith, is a master at navigating tricky political and regulatory situations.